MMA fight prediction Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

Fight at UFC 329 McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11

Conor McGregor
Notorious

Ireland
Ireland
Age: 37
Birth date: 1988-07-14
Height: 172 sm Weight: 70 kg
Weight categories: Lightweight

Max Holloway
Blessed

United States
United States
Age: 34
Birth date: 1991-12-04
Height: 180 sm Weight: 65 kg
Weight categories: Featherweight
Wins Losses Draws
22 6 0
KOs
19
2
Submissions
1
4
Decisions
2
Wins Losses Draws
27 8 0
KOs
12
1
Submissions
2
1
Decisions
13
6

Main prediction

Winner: Max Holloway
Loser: Conor McGregor

25.0%
75.0%

If win, then win by:


KO 35.0%

Decision 34.0%

Submission 31.0%


KO 38.0%

Decision 34.0%

Submission 28.0%

Advantages

A bit heavier

Disadvantages

Guest fighting

  • Perhaps biased judging

Big break between fights

  • Loss of physical fitness and competitive tone are likely

A bit older

Short series of defeats

Lower

Advantages

Home country

  • Perhaps biased judging
  • The moral advantage of fighting at home

A little younger

Higher

Disadvantages

Possible moral pressure due to home fighting

A bit lighter

Rating prediction

23.0%
77.0%

Past fights

Win

Event:

Date: 2013-08-17

Decision (Unanimous)

Round: 3 Time: 5:00

Loss

Opposition crossing

Jose Aldo

Result Date Event
Win
KO
(Punch)
Round: 1 Time: 0:13 		2015-12-12 UFC 194
Aldo vs. McGregor
Event Date Result
UFC 218
Holloway vs. Aldo 2 		2017-12-02 Win
TKO
(Punch)
Round: 3 Time: 4:51
UFC 212
Aldo vs. Holloway 		2017-06-03 Win
TKO
(Punch)
Round: 3 Time: 4:13

Dustin Poirier

Result Date Event
Loss
TKO
(Мedical stoppage)
Round: 1 Time: 5:00 		2021-07-10 UFC 264
Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Loss
KO
(Punch)
Round: 2 Time: 2:32 		2021-01-23 UFC 257
Poirier vs. McGregor 2
Win
TKO
(Punch)
Round: 1 Time: 1:46 		2014-09-27 UFC 178
Johnson vs. Cariaso
Event Date Result
UFC 318
Holloway vs. Poirier 3 		2025-07-19 Win
Decision
(Unanimous)
Round: 5 Time: 5:00
UFC 236
Holloway vs. Poirier 		2019-04-13 Loss
Decision
(Unanimous)
Round: 5 Time: 5:00
UFC 143
Diaz vs. Condit 		2012-02-04 Loss
Submission
(Triangle to armbar)
Round: 1 Time: 3:23