MMA fight prediction Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley

Fight at UFC 329 McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11

Kai Kamaka III

United States
United States
Weight: 61 kg
Weight categories: Bantamweight

Luke Riley

United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Weight categories: Featherweight
Wins Losses Draws
18 7 1
KOs
3
2
Submissions
1
Decisions
14
5
Draws
1
Wins Losses Draws
10 0 0
KOs
7
Decisions
3

Main prediction

Winner: Luke Riley
Loser: Kai Kamaka III

49.0%
51.0%

If win, then win by:


Decision 39.0%

KO 31.0%

Submission 30.0%


Decision 39.0%

KO 33.0%

Submission 28.0%

Advantages

Home country

  • Perhaps biased judging
  • The moral advantage of fighting at home

More experience fighting in professional MMA tournaments

Short winning streak

Disadvantages

Possible moral pressure due to home fighting

Advantages

Long winning streak

Disadvantages

Guest fighting

  • Perhaps biased judging

Rating prediction

40.0%
60.0%